Trump vs Kamala: When can we expect US presidential election results for swing states?

As voting closes across the United States, former President Donald Trump currently holds a narrow lead over Democratic rival Kamala Harris in several key battleground states. However, a final decision on the next occupant of the White House hinges on the results from seven swing states, where counting is underway but could extend for days due to high mail-in ballots and varied counting rules.

According to the latest projections, Trump is estimated to have secured 210 electoral college votes, while Harris has garnered 113. To win the presidency, a candidate must reach 270 electoral votes. The swing states, or battlegrounds, will be crucial to achieving this threshold, with early counts showing Trump leading in several.

In North Carolina, with 85% of votes counted, Trump leads with 50.8% compared to Harris's 48.1%. In Pennsylvania, which is 63% counted, Trump holds 51.0% against Harris's 48.1%. In Georgia, Trump’s lead sits at 51.1% over Harris’s 48.2%, with 90% of votes counted. Meanwhile, Wisconsin shows Trump at 50.0% against Harris’s 48.5%, with 56% of the vote in. Michigan remains a close contest with Trump at 50.4% and Harris at 47.8%, with 26% of votes counted.

What happened in 2020

In the 2020 elections, Joe Biden was not declared the winner until four days after Election Day, when results in Pennsylvania became clearer. States like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin saw a "red mirage," with Trump leading initially before a "blue shift" as mail-in ballots, favoured by Democrats, were counted. Similar dynamics are expected this week in states like North Carolina and Georgia.

Key battlegrounds and timing

The seven battleground states can be broadly grouped into the Rust Belt (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin) and the Sun Belt (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina). These regions have distinct political and demographic dynamics that shape voting patterns and processing timelines. Rust Belt states, traditionally Democratic strongholds, swung Republican in 2016 but returned to the Democrats in 2020. Harris’s team sees winning the Rust Belt as essential to clinching victory.

Polls in Georgia closed first at 7 pm ET, followed by North Carolina at 7.30 pm. Early ballots in these states are expected to be processed quickly, providing an initial glimpse into each candidate’s standing. Pennsylvania's polls closed at 8 pm, but mail-in votes, counted only from Election Day morning, could slow down the tally. In Arizona and Nevada, where polls close later, results could take days due to high mail-in ballot counts.

Counting processes and delays

Each swing state has unique counting regulations, influencing how soon results will be finalised. Pennsylvania’s rule prohibiting early counting of mail-in ballots until Election Day may delay a clear winner, especially as mail-in ballots are expected to favour Harris. Similarly, in Wisconsin, where absentee votes are processed centrally in cities, late-night or early-morning ballot counts could alter the result in Harris’s favour, just as happened in 2020.

In North Carolina, absentee and overseas ballots are counted for several days post-election, which could postpone results. Arizona, with a high volume of early votes, might initially favour Harris, but in-person votes could tilt towards Trump as counting progresses. Nevada, historically slow in counting, has introduced measures for faster processing, but mail ballots postmarked by November 5 could further delay the final outcome.