Political Price of the Waqf Bill: NDA Risks Muslim Backlash in Bihar

As heads toward Assembly elections later this year, the role of Muslims—who constitute 17 percent of the electorate—has become a critical political fault line.

In recent weeks, Iftar and Eid gatherings, once seen as gestures of goodwill, transformed into litmus tests of political allegiance.

But this year, the overshadowed the traditional Ramadan outreach.

The bill, which aims to reform Waqf property management, has sparked backlash among Muslim organisations who see it as a threat to their religious autonomy. While Bihar Chief Minister and Union Minister backed the legislation, critics accuse them of undermining minority rights while feigning inclusivity.

On Eid, after key Muslim organisations had boycotted his Iftar gathering in protest against the Waqf Bill, Nitish Kumar joined thousands of worshippers at Patna’s historic Gandhi Maidan in a public display of solidarity.

But the damage had already been done—his Ramadan outreach had failed to appease discontented Muslim groups. The same applied to Chirag Paswan, whose appeal among Muslims has been steadily declining.

Instead, the largest Muslim organisations—led by Imarat-e-Shariah and the All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB)—mobilised against the bill, with Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj amplifying the opposition. The refusal of Muslim groups to engage with Nitish and Chirag’s symbolic overtures sent a clear message: gestures of goodwill hold little weight when substantive political grievances remain unaddressed.

The Political Significance of the Iftar Boycott

The decision by key Muslim organiations to boycott the Iftar hosted by Nitish Kumar and Chirag Paswan stemmed from widespread discontent over the Waqf (Amendment) Bill. Critics argue that the legislation curtails Muslim autonomy by expanding state oversight of Waqf properties, leading to concerns of governmental encroachment.

Nitish Kumar’s reluctance to oppose the bill and Chirag Paswan’s close alignment with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have been interpreted as acts of political expediency at the expense of minority interests.

While Lalu Prasad and Prashant Kishor publicly aligned with the protesters, the Iftar event hosted by Nitish and Chirag failed to resonate, further underscoring their estrangement from a constituency demanding unequivocal opposition to the bill.

The boycott, led by Imarat-e-Shariah and Jamiat Ulama-i-Hind, was more than a symbolic gesture; it was a direct repudiation of leaders perceived as acquiescent to the BJP’s broader ideological agenda.

Historical Antecedents

This erosion of support has historical antecedents. In the 2020 elections, the Janata Dal (United)failed to secure victory in any Muslim-majority constituencies, marking a stark decline for Nitish Kumar, who once enjoyed a reputation as a secular leader.

His subsequent appointment of Jama Khan, a former Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader, as Minority Affairs Minister, was widely viewed as a superficial attempt to maintain representation, particularly in Seemanchal—a region where dissatisfaction with the JD(U) is most pronounced.

Chirag Paswan faces a similarly precarious position; his party’s only prominent Muslim leader, Mehboob Ali Kaiser, defected to the RJD, further marginalising his political outreach.

Given the shifting dynamics within their respective vote bases—OBCs for Nitish and Dalits for Chirag—both leaders require Muslim support to retain leverage within the NDA, where the Muslim electorate remains largely skeptical of the BJP’s core ideological framework.

Their hesitancy in confronting the Waqf Bill, however, risks further alienating this crucial bloc.

The BJP’s Constraints of Minority Outreach

The BJP’s electoral strategy in Bihar is a calculated blend of ideological steadfastness and selective outreach, designed to solidify its position among key demographic groups while simultaneously weakening its alliance partners.

The Waqf Bill controversy has severely damaged the secular credentials of Nitish Kumar and Chirag Paswan, alienating a significant section of Muslim voters who once saw them as a counterweight to Hindutva politics within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

At the same time, the BJP has sought to position itself among Muslim voters through initiatives like Saugat-e-Modi, targeting economically marginalised Muslims, and symbolic appointments such as Arif Mohammad Khan as Governor.

This dual approach—damaging its allies' credibility among Muslims while making a controlled push into the community itself—signals a deeper strategic shift.

However, despite the efforts, the broader Muslim electorate remains largely skeptical of the BJP, and any inroads appear marginal. Recognising this limitation, the party has intensified its focus on consolidating its hold over OBCs and Dalits.

A key component of this strategy is the elevation of new leadership within these communities to challenge established power structures. For instance, the appointment of Krishna Kumar Mantoo, a Kurmi legislator, as a minister from the BJP’s quota signals an attempt to erode Nitish Kumar’s influence over his core vote bank.

Similarly, the elevation of Jitan Ram Manjhi to the cabinet, and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rajya Sabha nomination despite his distant third-place finish in the Lok Sabha elections, exemplify how the BJP is nurturing alternative Dalit and Koeri-Kurmi leaders who could gradually displace Nitish and Chirag’s influence.

For Nitish and Chirag, this realignment within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) poses a serious challenge.

Their reliance on Muslim voters to maintain secular leverage within the alliance is now at risk—not only due to their handling of the Waqf Bill but also because the BJP’s caste-based maneuvers are reducing their ability to compensate for these losses elsewhere.

The fallout was evident when key Muslim organisations boycotted Iftar gathering and Muslim leaders started resigning, underscoring growing Muslim disillusionment.

Previously, their secular standing provided them with a crucial buffer—one that the BJP struggled to penetrate. Now, with that base eroding and new caste leaders emerging under the BJP’s patronage, both leaders face the risk of being politically sidelined, caught between a damaged secular image and a shifting caste equation that no longer favours them.

Lalu’s Legacy and Prashant’s Play

Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD has emerged as the primary beneficiary of the NDA’s missteps.

By unequivocally opposing the Waqf Bill, the RJD has reinforced its historical association with Bihar’s Muslim electorate

Lalu Prasad’s participation in the protests—despite his frail health—has helped galvanise Muslim voters, rekindling memories of his past advocacy for minority rights.

Prashant Kishor, meanwhile, has positioned his Jan Suraaj movement as a fresh alternative for disillusioned Muslim voters, tapping into the growing resentment against Nitish and Chirag.

However, RJD’s path is not without obstacles. Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and smaller regional parties continue to fragment the Muslim vote. To secure a decisive advantage, the RJD must translate the momentum of the Waqf protests into an electoral strategy that consolidates the Muslim vote under its banner.

The Road to 2025: Electoral Implications

The 2025 Bihar election is shaping up to be a referendum on the political allegiance of the Muslim electorate.

The BJP, through targeted welfare measures, aims to make limited inroads, but the overarching fallout from the Waqf Bill favours the opposition. Nitish Kumar and Chirag Paswan, caught between coalition politics and their declining credibility among Muslims, face an uphill battle to reclaim lost ground.

If the opposition succeeds in mobilising Muslims, it could become the decisive factor in reshaping the state’s political future.

The refusal of Muslim groups to be swayed by mere symbolic overtures, as seen in the Iftar boycotts, signals a shift that could have far-reaching electoral consequences. In this high-stakes contest, the cost of ignoring substantive minority grievances may prove politically fatal for Nitish and Chirag.

(Ashraf Nehal is a political and foreign policy analyst and a columnist who mainly tracks South Asia. He can be reached on Twitter at  and on Instagram at . This is an opinion piece. The views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.)